WP 13 - Uncertainties, risks and thresholds (“tipping points”)
What do we do? - Science

WP 13 leader: Carol Turley   CT (at) pml.ac.uk   PML



  • To identify the potentially thresholds ("tipping points") associated with ocean acidification on regional and global scales this century and assess the uncertainties, probabilities and risks and their feedback to climate systems with particular emphasis on IPCC FAR mitigation and non-mitigation scenarios and pathways to CO2 stabilisation.
  • To assess pathways of CO2 emissions required to avoid the identified thresholds and describe the state change if these emissions are exceeded and the subsequent risk to the marine environment and Earth system.


Description of work and role of participants:

All participants will contribute to this through outputs from WPs 2-12. This WP will summarise and integrate this key aspect from each of the other WPs from genes to cells to ecosystems.

T13.1: Establish a “Tipping Points Group”(TPG) with membership representing each of the EPOCA WPs

T13.2: Prepare a “straw man” document of potential “tipping points” for internal circulation and refinement within the consortium. This will be refined and updated annually as results from EPOCA unfold

T13.3: Present interim findings of the TPG at the EPOCA annual Meetings

T13.4: Produce a final report synthesising the current state of understanding of tipping points associated with ocean acidification, their potential risk, and emission pathways required to reduce this risk to the marine environment and feedback to climate


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